Minimum Risk, Minimum Reward

Sherman: I am the Sherminator, a sophisticated Sex-Robot sent through time to change the future for one lucky lady.
Nadia: I am lucky lady?
Sherman: That's right Nadia, you've been targeted for Shermination. Come with me if you want to live.

"American Pie 2"

I have been playing a heap of poker of late, and getting the expected up and down results. I had a big gambling weekend last week with a big sports bet getting up on Friday night and then a 2nd place in a MTT on Saturday night (got a bit excited with 63o when heads up, lost to A6h). I lost most of the winnings in the cash games thanks to a few bits of bad luck and the like, but I'm still up thanks to some solid play after the felts.

I have also had the chance to play in the cash games with other people watching, and discussing the hands once they have been included has been very beneficial. Especially when we speak about why we made a play at this pot, why call here and what we think the other player had. It's good to bounce these ideas around and see what works, and also to hear that someone else agrees with the method to your madness.

I am finding that a heap of people are buying in for the minimum all the time - why is that? I don't like this strategy at all. They buy in for the minimum, wait for a hand and then try to double up - which in itself sounds ok but there are some other factors that make this a real bad play. For example, last night new guy to the table buys in for the minimum and sits to my right - I have 10 times the chips in front of me that he does, so when he does come in for a raise, I'm happy to call with rags because even if I am dominated, the most I am going to loose is a pittance. And if I hit, he is already very close to pot committed.

So it happens - I call with rags and flop 2 pair, felts the player. So then he rebuys, and it happens again a few hands later (by someone else this time). And he auto-rebuys again. But why? If you have the money, you may as well play properly. Eventually I flop a set and the guy goes all-in and I call, he hits runner-runner for a better full house and doubles up to be still down a buy-in, and then cashes out.

Oh well, don't tap the glass I guess.

We had 2 prop bets going on the game - first player to get dealt aces and first player to crack aces, I lost on both which meant even though I was in front for the entire session, I ended up breaking even thanks to these props.

It was great though, having a massive session online which has not happened in a very long time, and still being very social about it. This helps since I have moved down to Melbourne away from all my poker playing friends in Sydney.

Planning another trip to the casino this weekend, depending on how things go it might even be a few trips. I made a cash out of online funds again because the Aussie Dollar dropped so low than all the funds invested in online poker under my name gained something like 25%-40% in the space of about a month. It felt good to have a proper live bankroll again.

Hawthorn

Dudley: Would you be willing to plant corroborative evidence on a suspect you knew to be guilty, in order to ensure an indictment?
Ed: Dudley, we've been over this.
Dudley: Yes or no, Edmund?
Ed: No.
Dudley: Would you be willing to beat a confession out of a suspect you knew to be guilty?
Ed: No.
Dudley: Would you be willing to shoot a hardened criminal in the back, in order to offset the chance that some...lawyer...
Ed: No.
Dudley: Then, for the love of God, don't be a detective. Stick to assignments where you don't have to make those kinds of choices.

"L.A. Confidential"

Russ Hamilton, hey? Tip of the ice berg stuff I feel. This is going to be a bumpy ride.

It feels like it has been a long time, but I finally pulled out first place in a SNG. Nothing major, no big stakes, no massive field. Just a simple little single table sin n go, and I took first place. I am getting very comfortable with my end game in these tournament type situations, but haven't had the luck to get over the line in the past. I thought it was going to happen again.

Through some selective play, I manage to get to heads up just behind in chips. As can be the case a lot of the time, you make more money (and chips in this case) by taking advantage of other peoples mistakes than you do from your own good play. We've been going back and forth a bit, with the odd pre-flop raise that usually gets a fold. Nothing serious yet. I get 62d on the small blind, and try to limp. He checks his option and we go to a flop with me in position now.

Flop comes nothing special, something like queen high with just the one diamond. Opponent checks, and I check as well. The turn comes a second diamond. I still have nothing but six high, but at least I have a chance at something now. For the first time in the hand, he bets out. T600 into T600, and I have T6000 left. So of course I call, no need for me to get too excited just yet. The river brings me my flush, but otherwise the board is nothing special. He bets out T2500. I only have to think for a moment, and really I can't push all-in here because only a better flush would call me and anything else would fold anyway. I just call, and see that he had KK for a slow play that went terribly wrong.

Did I get lucky? Not really. He just got stupid, and I guess a little unlucky. When we were heads up, I didn't try to slow play once. I made sure if he saw a flop, it was for a raise if I was ahead, or figured I should be ahead. I do see what he was trying to do, waiting for that check-raise (which I had nailed once or twice before with top pair, and not just against him) but in this case it backfired badly.

I thought my luck had changed, but then a pre-flop all-in from me and a call had me well in front with AKc vs A9o. Nine on the flop - thank you very much. At least my chip lead was so dominant that I still had him 2-1 after that double up.

About this time, the little Distraction woke up, and when she wakes up hungry she makes sure everyone knows about it. There is only one thing that will stop that little siren, and that's food. The Distraction and I go into "Get Steffi Food Now" mode, but I am heads up in a SNG and need the money. I get the formula warmed up and in the little princess' mouth without timing out, but then go into immediate push or fold mode, Aces and Faces as they say. I get a suited queen, push to see an ace and a little card. I hit the queen, everyone is all over and I've finally won one. It felt good not to bust out in second for a change.

It would be amiss for me not the mention the mighty Hawks. Big underdogs on the weekend, they came to play in the AFL grand final and took the trophy from Geelong, all because the Cats were not used to being put under that much pressure. They made too many mistakes, while the Hawks limited theirs. I knew Hawthorn could win, but I didn't't know if they would. I have been such a sports betting donkey that I even considered putting money against Hawthorn - so that even if they lost, at least I would have something to celebrate.

Truth be told, I wanted to put money on Hawthorn to win this year way back in February. I was born the year my father's team won the premiership (what my North American friends would call the "championship", we Australians call a "premiership"), and I figured my team could win the year the little Distraction was born. I had set aside $100 to put on Hawthorn after week 3. We had a slew of stars that had been suspended the year before that would miss the first few games of the season. We were paying $11 at the start of the year, and I figured the price would go higher after round 3. Well, in round 1 the Hawks had a 100+ point win, and look like gold from then, never getting below third on the ladder for the season. The $11 price never got lower either, and I never put the bet on. Damn, that grand would have been nice this time of year too.

I also said 3 weeks ago to put $20 on Hawthorn to win the AFL into Manly to win the NRL, paying 20-1. I didn't't get the bet on for what ever reason - Hawks go on to win, and this weekend Manly are the favourites to take out the NRL. They'll get up to I reckon. Just another missed opportunity, but I guess we only remember the ones that would have won after we didn't bet, not the other way around.

Learning Curve

Ronald: Did it look at you? Did the fire look at you? It did. Whoa. Wow. Our worlds aren't that far apart after all, are they? So, whoever is doing this knows the animal well, doesn't he? He knows him real well, but he won't let him loose. He won't let him have any fun, so he does not love him. Now who doesn't love fire? And is around trychtichlorate all day long?
Brian: Oh my God!
Ronald: See... that wasn't such a long trip after all.

"Backdraft"

I am no stranger to loosing streaks. They come and visit from time to time, and even though I'v been playing poker and cards for some time, I still get a little bit affected by them. They can drain confidence as well as the bank roll, and both took a beating recently.

But then I had a little ray of hope, thanks to a donkey fest $1 tournament on Stars - and I wasn't even playing. We managed to hook up the laptop to the big plasma screen, because online poker is that exciting that you should share it with the whole family. Actually, though that last sentence was sarcastic, it isn't that bad playing tournament poker with the family that way, few drinks in tow.

We were doing ok in this tournament, and I often get referred to for perceived difficult decisions because my sickness to the poker beast is well known. The rest of the family are fairly new to the game and their understanding of what to do when - and most importantly why - is limited somewhat (though I must say my younger brother is really getting good, thanks to working in a casino and reading SuperSystem).

What helped me was when the referred decisions to me, I knew what to do and could explain why you do it without thinking. These were not earth shattering ideas or moves, but they were automatic almost for me. They could be explained quickly and succinctly, and made sense to everyone. It felt good that they worked too, most of the time.

First one, pocket jacks on the button - I say you should raise the 3 limpers in front of you with position, make it 4BB. The Distraction (who was actually the one playing) did so, and two called. The flop was low rags, and the pot was T950, with us having T1100 left. Check - check - what would you do? I say push, there is nearly a thousand chips out there and we want them, we have every right to believe we're ahead, and an over card on the turn will make us doubt that. She shoved all-in, they both folded, we get in a good position.

Unfortunately, it was about this time that the Little Distraction got a bit upset, and we had to tend to her needs. My mum took over, and made a crucial error. With blinds getting higher, she made a good pre-flop raise to T500 with big slick. Another player went all-in after her for an extra T900, and she thought she should fold it. I reckon throw it in there, if you are dominated then so be it, this is a tournament after all. But that and some cold cards made us into short stack territory - all in or fold time.

With AsTs, I said it was time to shove it all in, despite a small raise from a player in front. With only 9BB, it made sense. The original raiser was the only caller, and they had two red sevens. That is about the best we could have hoped for - apart from the Ace that landed on the flop. Turn was a blank, but the river brought the seven of clubs and we're going home. Damn, lost to yet another set. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

So we didn't even win any money, finished 100 or so places off the pace, but I felt a little confidence rise none the less.

Mind you, if a certain Brownlow medal bet got up on Monday night, I'd be on cloud nine. Instead, I lost my biggest sports bet ever, eclipsing the previous biggest sports bet loss which was also on the Brownlow medal a few years ago. I think I should have learnt something from this...

I've Been Set Up

Batty: Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.

"Bladerunner"

I went through an online session that had me convinced I had pissed off the poker demons some how. In the space of just a few hours, I lost decent pots to flopped or turned sets at an alarming rate. It was getting so that I almost folded KK on a 943 rainbow flop when my opponent led out. He went all in for a little over $10 and I had $20 left ($15 in the pot). I felt sure he had 99 for a flopped set of nines yet again, but called anyway because I figured I was pot committed, and more so I was on tilt from being beaten by too many sets. So I call, and he surprises me by showing 33.

Though I didn't think so at the time, it was kind of funny how regular it was happening - and from all corners of the table. To go with the one above, here are the hands that lost to sets in the space of 2-3 hours with some brief details.

AK vs 99 - AK9 flop.
AQ vs 99 - A94 flop, Q turn.
KK vs 33 - as above
TT vs 88 - 8-high flop.
AJ vs 33 vs 55 - J53 flop, both were shortstacks and pushed after I bet pot on the flop.
T7 vs 99 - Flop comes K77...4...9!
67s vs 33 - flop comes 3s9s2s, I bet out he calls. Turn comes 2h. He pushes, I call and weep.
KJ vs 55 vs K9 - flop comes K95, but I was on tilt by now and called anything anyway.
77 vs A6d - Flop has 2 diamonds, no betting. Turn is the 7d, I bet he calls. River didn't pair the board.

And just some others that made me feel great.
23h vs KK - First hand, he raised UTG to T30, I re-raised to T200. He calls. Flop is 345, no hearts. He pushes, I call and the turn is a 6.
AK vs 73o - short stack in ring game pushes pre-flop with 73o, I call and one other. Flop comes 777.

So it wasn't happy days. All of this happened at a new site I was trying, and I think I'll leave it alone. Back to where I belong at Full Tilt and Pokerstars would be a good move.

I did go deep in a Full Tilt knockout tournament. After waiting for some hands to come, I managed to get around the leaders with about 150 to go. Then, things ran well as I bullied and knocked out the small stacks. If they went all in with AJ, I called with AK. Actually, AK was being far too nice to me on the night, and may have been the reason why I ended up getting all those beats I mentioned before. Karma works that way.

Pretty soon I was in the chip lead, and then had daylight second as I would not let anyone see the turn without putting all their chips at risk (if I had already hit). I was winning pots regularly with continuation bets or just second pair, and rarely had to bluff or represent something I didn't have. The chips built, and as we got closer to the final table I relaxed a bit and folded through to still have the chip lead when the final 9 were decided.

Other players dropped away regularly, and I had a hand in a few of them. By now, the blinds were big and I had surrendered the chip lead, which was then passed around regularly. I started to hit some hands again and went back into bully mode, and found a lot of pots being pushed my way without the trouble of a showdown. When we got heads up, I managed to get the lead and put my opponent all-in when I had him dominated twice (AJ vs KJ and then 88 vs 56s), but wasn't able to put him away. Eventually, I lost a coin flip pre-flop all-in with something like A6 vs K9 and was sent away in second. I really wanted the win, as this year has been a year of second places for me, but I'll take the money and be happy.

The Eagle Has Landed

Dr. Bill Harford: Are you sure of that?
Alice Harford: Am I sure? Only as sure as I am that the reality of one night, let alone that of a whole lifetime, can ever be the whole truth.
Dr. Bill Harford: And no dream is ever just a dream.

”Eyes Wide Shut”

Crazy times I tell you. I have played poker, won and lost, over the past few weeks. But the most important thing is I have ended the employment search with a job I can do well, in an industry I have wanted to be in for some time, with one of the biggest companies in Australia – so I was pretty happy with that outcome.

Which means the Distractions and I have left Sydney for permanent residence in Melbourne. At the moment, this means moving back in to my parents house – and while financially this is a pretty good deal, with a 5 month old baby I would prefer if we had a place of our own very quickly. But we’ll see how all that pans out.

I had one final home game session in Sydney last week – one where I made sure I had a driver to and from the game, so I could have a few drinks and enjoy myself for the last time at the venue without having to worry about driving home drunk. I’m glad I made the arrangements, because I ended up drinking nearly double what I have ever drank before in one sitting. I was feeling ok – slurred speech to be sure, but mental faculties pretty much intact – until I put down the last drink at 7.30am and got up to leave. Man, that can hit you all at once can’t it? The end result was 2 ½ days of recovery when we should have been packing, something the Distraction is yet to forgive me for.

But back to the poker at hand – I was in the mood to gamble and saw my first 3 buy ins go south before I had anything to brag about. I got myself in a few favourable situations, got lucky once, and managed to eek out a profit despite giving away some money towards the end in deals.
One hand of interest was calling an average raise preflop with JTs. Flop comes Jack high and the shortstack ($25) bets out $10. I figure if I call $10, I am essentially committing to call $15 next card because that is the only move he has left. He won’t fold and I doubt he’ll check it down. Top pair, weak kicker isn’t a great hand by any stretch of the imagination, but I thought about it some and figured if I am going to call $3-4 preflop with JT, why would I muck it when it hit? This kind of flop is really something that should interest JT – it would defeat the purpose to throw it away now, wouldn’t it?

I was pretty much doing this thinking out loud, and decided that since I was first to act on the turn, I could call now and throw it all in then to see what happens for the short stack. I am convinced now without the alcoholic haze that I played the hand wrong, but that is what happened. The turn was a useless 2, 3 or 4 – something low like that. I don’t know what I was waiting for, but threw my chips in straight away – in my mind, they were already in the pot anyways. Then the short stack has to think about calling – and this is when I realise my hand is good. He starts talking crap saying he thinks I’ve hit a set, and then he says he has Queens. I use what I think is one of the best bluffs you can ever use at the poker table – be honest. “You’ve got Queens? Wow – queens are good, you should call!”. Of course, he doesn’t have queens but was just testing the waters. Eventually he calls with a lower pocket pair that has missed. Brock on the river and I had a nice pot that gave me some chips to play with.

It was one of those hands where I think we both played the hand very poorly, but it seemed interesting to me none the less. Hey, I could tell you about all the great hands I play all the time, but where is the variety in that? Who wants to hear about perfect play all the time?
I was keen to gamble, like I said, and was very active in prop bets on the night – always taking the worst of the bet and trying to get better odds for it. When another player had a $5 bet on a game of rugby on the TV, I bought 20% of his action for $1 just to be involved. Because hey, why the hell not?

The biggest pot I gave away was three way all-in where I had JsJc vs Ako vs AhTh – the flop was 9h4h4s I think, or something similar. As it was getting late, I had worked up to back to near even and we were offering chops left and right, a 3-way chop was offered by one of the other guys. I said I was in front so I should get a benefit first, but someone else claimed even though I was in front, AhTh was favourite. I don’t think that is right, but I didn’t run the odds then and I haven’t had a chance to since as yet. Anyway, I took $5 out of the pot (over $150) and then we chopped it. I was being overly nice, but I knew that and was happy to keep the game going. We rabbit hunted anyway and the turn card was a heart – but it was the jack of hearts meaning I had a full house and would have both opponents drawing dead. But anyway, you live with the choices you make.

After everyone else had to leave early for a variety or reasons, the host and I hung around to make the most of my leave pass before I turned into a pumpkin. We played heads up (which I won convincingly, somehow) and then a bit of backgammon (which I also won, through sheer skill and determination). I’ve never enjoyed heads up much, but it seemed a fitting end to my Sydney poker playing experiences. I left the game in front for the session and more than content on the poker playing front for the week.

I am not sure when I will next get to play a game, but I have been dabbling in online poker since then in small burst – nothing special to report on.

Being in Melbourne does have it’s advantages besides the better poker room at Crown Casino. It also allows me regular access to AFL games, and in particularly the current finals series. Since being in Melbourne I have been to two Hawthorn games already – the second being their Qualifying final win over the Bulldogs last Friday night. I won’t be attending the Preliminary final in 2 weeks because my grandparents will be up to visit the small distraction, and so family comes first in this kind of thing. Truth be told, I’m looking forward to that anyway, so it isn’t a loss really.

I have been able to reverse fortunes somewhat in my sports betting stakes of late. I have decided to quit the multis and instead just concentrate on winning one bet at a time. I’ve gone 3 for 3 since that decision, and accompanied with the decision to increase the betting size slightly things have taken a turn for the better on that front. Having said that, I fully expect the streak to come to a screaming halt now that I have mentioned it.

Last thing before I leave for today, have a quick look at this site below – it tracks online poker players in all the major rooms, and will show the replay of the crazy high stakes hands from the rooms. Check it out at http://www.pokerlistings.com/market-pulse. Have some fun with that, I did mucking around on that site.

I Don't Need Nothin'

Navin R. Johnson: Well I'm gonna to go then. And I don't need any of this. I don't need this stuff, and I don't need you. I don't need anything except this.
[picks up an ashtray]
Navin R. Johnson: And that's it and that's the only thing I need, is this. I don't need this or this. Just this ashtray. And this paddle game, the ashtray and the paddle game and that's all I need. And this remote control. The ashtray, the paddle game, and the remote control, and that's all I need. And these matches. The ashtray, and these matches, and the remote control and the paddle ball. And this lamp. The ashtray, this paddle game and the remote control and the lamp and that's all I need. And that's all I need too. I don't need one other thing, not one - I need this. The paddle game, and the chair, and the remote control, and the matches, for sure. And this. And that's all I need. The ashtray, the remote control, the paddle game, this magazine and the chair.
[walking outside]
Navin R. Johnson: And I don't need one other thing, except my dog.
[dog barks]
Navin R. Johnson: I don't need my dog.

“The Jerk”

Well, besides a real lack of posting things have been very hectic. I guess I’ve got a lot to say for once, so let’s go through it all with the promise that poker will feature in it.

Friday two weeks ago, I get called in for a standard meeting first thing in the morning with the CEO. The meeting was very quick, basically saying I didn’t have experience in three key areas of the company that I needed. Which was a bit weird, because I never claimed to have this experience when I was hired, but I guess when you are at a place with 150% turnover in 9 months, and that includes a new boss that wasn’t the one that hired me, these things tend to happen.

Not to worry, because I didn’t really care for the job that much – I took it as a pay increase, but had no other investment in it besides that. So I as offered the chance to “explore other opportunities”. I think I would have preferred it if they just said fired, but anyway that’s the way it goes.

And what did I do? I agreed with them. I wouldn’t have hired me either. The job was totally different to what I was sold on when I interviewed for it. This fact was backed up by the second in charge, as he was in the same boat in that respect (damn recruiters). I said no worries, thanks anyway and what do we do now? And that’s when it got a little weird.

I’m not sure, but maybe I was the first person this CEO has ever had to fire. I got that feeling a few times with a few instances before. So I was thanked for my professionalism and dignity in the whole process. It was nothing – I’m not going to storm out swearing or anything like that – what would be the point of that? What is the expected value of that play?

So they asked me to go upstairs and type up a letter for the auditors that were coming in that day, to say that it would be my last day. Yep, I had to type up my own termination letter. My sacking was first thing in the morning at a scheduled meeting, so they knew what was happening, couldn’t that be prepared earlier? And to boot, I had to re-type it because it wasn’t addressed to the CEO. What bullshit.

I wasn’t too concerned, and in truth I had already lined up an interview in Melbourne the next week. I told them as much, but I’m not sure why.

So anyway, while I’m doing this the CEO and the second in charge had a meeting with another member of staff (not getting fired) and when they get out of the meeting the other staff member says “I hear you are leaving us for Melbourne?”…Yeah, ever since I was fired 15 minutes ago. I get the feeling now that they made it look like I quit to the other staff. How weird is that?

I still had to hang around, typing up some handover notes because I did a lot of IT stuff that no one else has a clue about and a bunch of passwords that only I could remember for some reason. So I do, just thinking about getting home and getting a new job.

When the CEO and the 2IC come up, they announce were going out to lunch at 12. Me included. Yep, they fired me and then wanted to take me out to lunch to celebrate. What the hell is up with that? I said if it’s all the same, I’d rather just say good bye and go home.

Which brings me to the quote this post – The Jerk. Since my first day at the job I said we needed new office chairs. If you are spending 8-10 hours a day in the chair, you need to be comfortable. But these things were older than I was, and it actually hurt. My chair was broken, and then one day it was completely broken. That was 3 months in, and I figured that either they were never going to replace them, or if I brought in my office chair from home at least it would send a message. So I did, because my chair was an awesomely comfortable leather chair that cost only $90. Surely this would send the message? Alas, not to be. When I was fired, I was still using that chair. So I cleaned out my desk, and started to giggle. All I could think about was that scene from The Jerk which the quote above is pulled from – and I knew noone else in the office would understand. I missed working with people my own age – or people I could talk and relate to.

When I look back on it, a lot of other little things add up to more reasons why I was never going to succeed in the first place – some of them environmental, others political and personal. While it was a bit of an ego hit, I was glad to be out of there. I had a presentation to do at a conference that afternoon and I really didn’t want to do it. Getting fired gets you out of that I discovered.

By that night, the car was packed and we made our way to Melbourne. In the past two weeks I’ve been going to every interview that will take me – some good, some not so good. I’ve got one really solid lead going at the moment so fingers crossed. In a few weeks we’ll go back to Sydney and clean out the place. It will be really sad because we won’t be able to hang out with all our friends up there very often anymore. I’ll miss the regular home game, even though I haven’t played much since the little distraction was born.

Since moving to Melbourne I’ve had more free time obviously. So I really got back into online poker over the past 2 weeks. I started good and then got that old sinking feeling as the bad beats started to flow. And then I decided to just muscle up do some good after having my account of Stars down to $2.50. I was not going to loose.

I enrolled in a tournament, got to the final table and made some money. That allowed me to go into a larger SNG, and I split the winnings with 2nd place. I went into another tournament, another final table appearance. I went into a 9 table SNG, I end it heads up and didn’t get much luck and go out in second. In 2 days, I have turned that final $2.50 into $150, inch by inch. And it was fun too – ok, os it’s not going to become the new job, but I think I really needed some good results because after the job and then some horrid bad beats, I needed a win from somewhere.

So here I am, playing poker more than I have in a long time, and each day looking over multiple job websites looking for more work. We’ve got some money saved up that could see us through to the end of the year, but hopefully something comes up before then.

And there are always other ways to make money off poker…like affiliate deals! I believe me, I have some of the best. If you feel like doing a fellow poker blogger a solid, consider signing up to Casino On Net, Pacific Poker, Lucky Ace Casino or Lucky Ace poker through me. Send me an email, and I’ll make sure you get something out of it too. And again, thanks for reading. Maybe my posting will become a little more common now that unemployment kicks in.

Lack Of Posting

Sorry for the lack of posting. I have actually played some poker since the last post (2 hands, won them both, then cashed out) but that is not the reason for my absense. Things have been very hectic lately, and to cut a long story short I've found myself out of a job. Might be some tough times ahead and poker doesn't fit in now, even less than before. Alas, solider on we must. When you've got a losing hand, you just gotta muck it and wait for the next one to be dealt. We'll see what happens, stay tuned.